The Bitcoin Crash May Not Be Over – Why This Friday’s $10 Billion Options Expiry Could Make Things Worse

Bitcoin (BTC) hit its lowest point since September 2024 on Friday morning, touching $58,200 as selling pressure continued to weigh on the market’s leading cryptocurrency. But according to Bloomberg, the pain may not be finished — $10 billion in BTC options are set to expire on Friday on Deribit, and the structure of that positioning could push prices lower.

Why The Numbers Point The Wrong Way For Bitcoin 

Per the report, most of those expiring options were bullish bets placed when traders expected Bitcoin to keep climbing. With the price now well below where those bets were made, those positions are losing money — and that creates pressure on traders to adjust, hedge, or exit entirely.

Jean-David Pequignot, chief commercial officer at Deribit, put it plainly. “This is a book that has been positioned for higher prices over the medium term, now being marked against a spot that has slipped,” he said, adding that “the consensus long-call positioning has drifted offside.”

The options expiring on Deribit represent roughly 37% of total open interest (OI) — the full count of active contracts currently in play. The ratio of bearish puts to bullish calls sits at 0.83, meaning more contracts are still positioned for Bitcoin to rise than fall. 

But that apparent bullishness is misleading. The bulk of those bullish call options are now out of the money, meaning they carry no intrinsic value at current price levels. 

The bearish put options, by contrast, are clustered around the $60,000 to $65,000 range and the $70,000 to $75,000 band — levels Bitcoin has already retreated from — making those bets far more likely to pay off.

Record ETF Outflows, Rising Rates 

Beyond the options market, the US Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector has become an additional source of concern. Over the past 30 days, these funds have recorded $6.4 billion in outflows — the largest 30-day withdrawal on record. 

Last week alone saw $233 million in ETF redemptions, while broader crypto funds posted $116 million in net outflows, extending a five-week losing streak. 

The broader macro picture isn’t helping either. As interest rates stay elevated, investors are increasingly moving money toward assets that actually pay a return — bonds, money market funds, dividend stocks. 

Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, said that option traders’ longer-dated bearish bias toward Bitcoin has intensified as hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and elevated Treasury yields signal tighter liquidity conditions ahead. “Under conditions of contracting liquidity, BTC typically does not fare so well,” he said.

By the time of publication, Bitcoin had recovered some ground, climbing back to $59,855. Despite the partial recovery, the picture remains sobering — Bitcoin is down 44% year-to-date and sits 52% below its all-time high of $126,000.

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