Strategy Should Sell $3 Billion In Bitcoin Now, Grayscale’s Zach Pandl Says — Here Is Why

Strategy (MSTR) is having one of the worst months in its history. Behind it, Bitcoin (BTC) prices have been falling below $60,000, the company’s market value has slipped below the worth of its actual BTC holdings for the first time, and its preferred stock STRC has dropped below the $100 par value it was issued at. 

Against that backdrop, Grayscale’s Head of Research is calling on the company to take a step its founder has repeatedly said he would never take — sell Bitcoin.

Sell Bitcoin Or Lose The Market’s Trust 

Zach Pandl said on X (previously Twitter) that he expects Strategy to increase the dividend on its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock by roughly 50 basis points, a move that would add approximately $100 million in liabilities over a two-year period. 

That, he said, probably would not do much to restore confidence. What would, in his view, is a Bitcoin sale. Pandl said he would like to see Strategy sell at least $3 billion worth of its Bitcoin holdings to cover nearly all of its cash obligations over the next two years — with the exception of one of its convertible notes. A move of that size, he argued, would likely go a long way toward reassuring the market.

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. flagged the situation in his latest Weekly Engine note, putting Strategy’s Market-to-Net Asset Value (mNAV) ratio — a measure of how much investors are willing to pay for the company’s shares relative to the underlying Bitcoin on its balance sheet — at 0.99. 

Strategy’s mNAV closed below 1 for the first time in history.

The market is no longer willing to pay a premium for MSTR over the value of its BTC reserve. That means it will be significantly harder for Michael to raise new capital to buy Bitcoin.

What this means for the market… pic.twitter.com/JUNRvY3ePK

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) June 28, 2026

A reading below 1 means the market is no longer willing to pay a premium for Strategy shares over the Bitcoin it holds directly. It is the first time in the company’s history that ratio has fallen below that threshold, and analysts have described it as a significant break in the premium that powered Strategy’s entire Bitcoin-buying model.

The Numbers Behind Strategy’s Crisis

Adler’s figures filled in the rest of the picture. Strategy held 847,363 Bitcoin at the time of his note, a reserve worth approximately $50.7 billion. Against that, it carries around $1.4 billion in USD reserves, $1.71 billion in annual dividend obligations, $6.75 billion in debt at 11% net leverage, and preferred securities totaling $15.5 billion. 

Measured in cash, the company has an estimated 9.8 months of dividend coverage. Measured against its Bitcoin holdings, that number stretches to 29.6 years — but only if those holdings are never touched.

That gap is the central tension, as Adler put it. Michael Saylor has repeatedly and publicly vowed never to sell the Bitcoin Strategy holds. If he keeps that promise, the company has nearly 30 years of theoretical dividend coverage. 

If he breaks it, the runway shrinks to under 10 months. The entire financial case for Strategy rests on which of those two paths the company takes — and right now, the market is pricing in something closer to the pessimistic scenario.

Featured image generated with OpenArt.