Bitcoin Is Back Above $64,000, But Three Metrics Say The Bear Market Is Not Over — Here Is What Changes That

Over the weekend, Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above $64,000, but the recovery has not flipped the most important indicators. Three on-chain metrics tracked by analyst Ali Martinez remain in bear market territory. At the same time, one specific price level now marks the difference between a deeper correction and a genuine trend reversal.

Three Bitcoin Metrics, All In Bear Territory 

In a social media post on X (previously Twitter), Martinez identified three indexed metrics — the aSOPR, the Puell Multiple, and the Reserve Risk Multiple — all currently hovering below zero. In plain terms, each measures a different dimension of market health. 

The aSOPR tracks whether Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or a loss on average — below zero means the majority are selling at a loss, a sign of capitulation. 

The Puell Multiple measures mining revenue relative to its historical average — below zero indicates miners are under financial stress, often associated with bear market conditions. 

The Reserve Risk Multiple weighs the incentive long-term holders have to sell against the risk of doing so — below zero suggests those holders are accumulating rather than distributing.

All three sitting below zero simultaneously is what Martinez described as confirmation of a dominant bearish posture — deep capitulation, depressed miner revenues, and an extended accumulation phase playing out at the same time. 

The first signal of a genuine trend shift, he said, will be the aSOPR crossing back above zero. A confirmed breakout there, followed by the Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk Multiple doing the same, would validate the start of a new bull market.

But the more immediate question is what happens at $64,700. Martinez identified that level as the critical inflection point for BTC’s next move this week. It represents the top of the price channel Bitcoin has been trading in, and how it responds there will likely determine the short-term direction. 

Is A Summer Bottom Coming? 

If sellers hold that ceiling and Bitcoin fails to break through, Martinez expects a pullback to $63,000 first and potentially a retest of $61,500 at the bottom of the channel. 

A confirmed hourly close above $64,700, on the other hand, would invalidate the bearish setup and open the path toward $66,400 with a secondary target at $68,000, a level not reached since early June.

BITCOIN: WEEKEND BREAKOUT?

The definitive level to watch is the top of the channel at $64,700. This serves as the critical inflection point for Bitcoin’s next major move.

A failure to break through this channel cap will likely trigger a deeper correction. If sellers defend… pic.twitter.com/lTvshCi6Rk

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) July 11, 2026

The longer-term picture is more optimistic in at least one corner of the industry. Adrian Fritz, chief investment strategist at crypto asset manager 21Shares, told Fortune he expects Bitcoin to find its bottom sometime this summer and recover toward $100,000 by year-end. 

The executive’s reasoning centers on two catalysts — eventual Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and a resolution of the Iran conflict, both of which he believes would shift market sentiment significantly. 

“Our price target seems like a stretch for a lot of people,” Fritz said in his interview, “but once the tables turn and that momentum builds, the upside capture happens quite quickly.”

Featured image generated with OpenArt.