Bitcoin Bottom May Be Near β Top Analyst Reveals How Low It Could Go First
After reaching its lowest level since September 2024 at $52,000 on Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) has found a degree of stability, currently trading between $59,000 and $60,000.
24 hours after the crash, market analyst Ali Martinez shared his latest outlook in a post on X (formerly Twitter), concluding that Bitcoin’s bottom is close β and backing that view with a decade of price history.
The Indicator That Has Called Every Bitcoin BottomΒ
At the center of his analysis is the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), a long-term trend indicator that smooths out Bitcoin’s volatile price action over nearly four years of trading data.Β
Martinez argued that over the past decade, this moving average has functioned as the ultimate reference point for identifying generational market floors β and that every time Bitcoin has approached or dipped below it, the result has been a significant recovery.
In August 2015, Bitcoin touched the 200-week moving average and launched a bull market that eventually produced gains of more than 8,500%. In December 2018, a test of the same level triggered a swift 267% recovery.Β
The March 2020 COVID-induced liquidity crisis saw Bitcoin briefly validate the moving average as support before surging 1,125% in the months that followed.Β
Most recently, in June 2022, Bitcoin dipped below the moving average for the first time in its history and consolidated there until December 2022 β after which a 680% expansion followed.
β Ali Charts (@alicharts) June 26, 2026
That historical context is what makes the current setup significant, according to Martinez. The 200-week moving average currently sits at $63,500. Bitcoin is trading just below it at roughly $60,000. Based on the past ten years of market behavior, Martinez said, this zone represents a prime accumulation window for long-term investors.
$40,000 Is Still On The TableΒ
The analyst was, at the same time, careful to acknowledge the downside risks alongside the opportunity. Bitcoin could absolutely push lower from here, Martinez said, with deeper targets at $54,000 and potentially $40,000 remaining on the table.Β
The level to watch, Martinez said, is $63,500. A confirmed reclaim of the 200-week moving average on a higher timeframe β meaning the price not just touching it but closing above it with conviction β has historically marked the early stages of a new bull market.Β
Until that happens, the zone between current prices and $40,000 is where the analyst believes the most asymmetric long-term opportunity currently sits.
Featured image generated with OpenArt.Β