Bitcoin (BTC) Climbs Back Near $63,000 — Is The Worst Over Or Is One More Drop Coming?

Bitcoin (BTC) staged an 8% recovery heading into the first weekend of July, climbing back near $63,000 after touching $57,800 earlier in the week — its lowest level of the year.  Analyst Alex Carchidi of The Motley Fool looked at what history actually says about where Bitcoin tends to go from here. 

What History Says About Bitcoin In July 

The analyst first flagged that June has never been kind to BTC — the median return for June is essentially flat, sitting at a slight loss of 0.5%. July is a different story. 

Since 2013, Bitcoin has ended nine of its thirteen Julys in positive territory, with a median increase of 8.2%. This is particularly evident in bear market years — July 2018 saw a 21% increase, while July 2022 saw a 17% rise. 

Carchidi reported that in every prior instance where Bitcoin lost ground for more than one consecutive month heading into July, the month still closed positive — though never by enough to fully erase what came before.

That pattern points toward a modest recovery as the most likely outcome for July, Carchidi said. But he was clear that two specific factors complicate the picture this time around. 

The Two Clouds Over BTC’s Recovery

The first is Strategy’s (Previously MicroStrategy) newly announced Bitcoin monetization program. As previously covered, the company authorized a $1.25 billion framework that allows it to sell BTC to cover dividend payments, build cash reserves, and fund stock buybacks.

The second factor cited by the analyst is the Federal Reserve (Fed). New chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady at his first policy meeting on June 17 but left open the possibility of a rate hike before the year is out. Tighter dollar conditions historically act as a headwind for risk assets like BTC. 

Even if July delivers a bounce, Carchidi warned that August has averaged a slight decline going back to 2010, and September carries an average loss of around 4% — making them the only two months on the calendar with consistently negative historical averages. 

One More Drop Before The Real Bottom 

From a technical perspective, market expert Crypto Rover posted an analysis on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) indicating that Bitcoin is displaying the same bottom structure that emerged prior to the 2023 rally. 

Rover said that, in the previous cycle, this pattern included a low in June, a brief recovery, a Relative Strenght Index (RSI) divergence, and then one final flush before the real bottom was confirmed. 

The historical parallel cuts both ways. In 2022, Bitcoin dropped another 28% after what appeared to be a June bottom before the actual floor was reached. 

If that fractal plays out again from current levels of around $62,800, it would imply a drop toward $45,000 — a target that aligns with potential bottom zones levels previously reported by CryptoDepth.

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