The Biggest Bitcoin ETF Drawdown On Record — Over $11 Billion Erased
Bitcoin ETFs are bleeding at a pace the industry has never seen before. Two separate on-chain analytics firms released new data confirming that the scale of institutional and retail withdrawals from crypto exchange-traded fund exposure has now crossed into historic territory.
Bitcoin ETFs Have Now Lost 160,000 BTC Since October
According to data shared by Santiment on Wednesday, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a combined $8.475 billion in net outflows since May 6, reflecting the sustained pullback in investor appetite that has accompanied Bitcoin’s recent price weakness.
CryptoQuant went further, noting that more than 100,000 BTC have left ETF provider reserves in 2026 alone. Measured from the peak holdings recorded in October 2025, the total outflow reaches more than 160,000 BTC — worth an estimated $11.2 billion at current prices. That makes this the largest drawdown Bitcoin ETFs have ever experienced.
The firm also flagged that with Bitcoin’s realized price — the average cost basis across all holders — sitting around $73,000, most BTC holders are currently underwater on their positions as the leading cryptocurrency trades between $59,000 and $60,000.
Citigroup moved quickly in response to the deteriorating picture from Bitcoin ETFs. In a note released Tuesday, the bank cut its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $82,000 from $112,000 and trimmed its Ethereum (ETH) forecast to $2,240 from $3,175.
The revision was driven primarily by Citi’s decision to reduce its 12-month net ETF inflow assumption all the way to zero, down from a previous estimate of $10 billion.
The bank cited weakening investor appetite, negative ETF flows, and a lack of meaningful progress on US crypto legislation such as the CLARITY Act as the three main factors behind the downgrade.
Two Reads On The Same Outflow
Beyond the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund sector, Citi said it does not expect broader investor adoption to recover until a new catalyst emerges.
The bank also pointed to concerns about potential Bitcoin selling by digital asset treasury (DAT) companies and flagged a broader market rotation away from crypto and toward AI-related assets as contributing factors weighing on sentiment.
But Santiment argued in its analysis that inflow and outflow figures function primarily as sentiment signals rather than direct price predictors — and that the relationship between sentiment and price tends to be inverse.
The firm wrote that the larger the outflow streak grows, the more reliably it can be read as frustration, fear, and capitulation from retail traders rather than as a signal of fresh downside ahead. If outflows continue pushing toward extreme levels, Santiment argued, it actually strengthens the case that Bitcoin is approaching a genuine bottom rather than the beginning of a new leg lower.
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