XRP Flashed a Rare Signal Last Seen Four Years Ago — It Could Lead to $13 If History Repeats
XRP is trading below $1.10 on Thursday as broader market weakness continues to weigh on the altcoin following last week’s recovery alongside Bitcoin’s (BTC) climb to $65,000.
But beneath the price pressure, one technical signal has appeared for only the second time in more than a decade — and the last time it showed up, it marked the exact bottom before a 1,100% rally.
The 2022 XRP Playbook
Market expert Sam Daodu identified the signal in his latest report. In June, XRP’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a momentum indicator that measures how overbought or oversold an asset is on a scale of zero to one hundred — fell to approximately 29.6, breaking below the 30 threshold that analysts use to define oversold territory. That has happened only twice in over ten years of weekly chart data.
The first time was June 2022, right after the Terra stablecoin collapsed and pulled the entire crypto market lower. XRP dropped to $0.29 that month, with the weekly RSI bottoming at 28.09. That turned out to be the exact low.
What followed was not an immediate rally. XRP sat near those lows for over two years. The actual move did not begin until November 2024, when Donald Trump won the US presidential election, and investors started pricing in a crypto-friendly administration.
The Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) legal battle with Ripple was also visibly winding down. XRP closed at $0.56 two days after the vote and reached $2.52 by early December — less than a month later. It eventually peaked at $3.66 in July 2025.
From the 2022 bottom to that high, the gain was 1,100%. But Daodu said it took nearly two and a half years to start, and most of it arrived in a matter of weeks once the catalysts aligned. The signal marked the floor. The rally waited for the right trigger.
The CLARITY Act Could Speed Everything Up
Daodu laid out what the same move would mean today. Another 1,100% from around $1.10 would put XRP near $13 — making it an asset worth close to $800 billion at its current circulating supply.
Notably, the expert flagged that figure is larger than Ethereum (ETH) has ever been and would represent roughly two-thirds of Bitcoin’s entire market value today. However, such signals do not guarantee the same rally will happen.
Right now, Daodu said, the buyers are missing. Exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows into XRP funds have slowed to nearly nothing this month after topping $130 million in May.
But what gives Daodu some confidence is the sentiment data. Santiment’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric, which compares the token’s current price to what existing holders originally paid, shows the deepest average losses ever recorded — the 30-day reading sits near negative 45% and the 365-day at negative 47%.
Numbers like that tend to describe sellers who have already given up rather than ones who are just getting started, which is the same condition that defined the 2022 bottom, the expert asserted.
The CLARITY Act, he concluded, is the variable that could compress the timeline. If the bill passes before the recess, the institutional demand that took over two years to materialize after the 2022 signal could arrive considerably faster. If it stalls, Daodu said XRP most likely waits for the next cycle — exactly as it did last time.
Featured image generated with OpenArt.