Solana (SOL) Is Holding $70 — But Losing It Opens A Crash To Levels Not Seen Since 2023

Solana (SOL) is trading around $75 and holding above the key $70 support — but for the seventh-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, the margin between current prices and territory not seen since 2023 is significantly narrow.

Technical analyst Ali Martinez identified a meaningful trend shift in Solana’s favor this week — backed by improving on-chain data — while also flagging a major supply wall that stands between current prices and any sustained rally.

Good Signals, One Big Obstacle 

The technical signal Martinez pointed to is the SuperTrend indicator on the three-day chart, which has flipped bullish for the first time since October 10. The Average True Range trailing stop — a tool that tracks volatility and helps define trend direction — crossed below price action, confirming the shift. 

The on-chain picture supports that read. Between July 3 and July 11, roughly 100 million SOL left exchange reserves — a significant reduction in the coins available for immediate selling. 

When assets move off exchanges in volume, it typically signals holders are moving them into private wallets for longer-term storage rather than positioning to sell. 

Alongside that, the analyst reported that 1.4 million new addresses joined the Solana network over a three-week window, a sign of network growth rather than just price speculation.

Despite those signals, the URPD data — which maps where the largest concentrations of holdings were last transacted — shows a dense supply zone between $76 and $85. 

125 million SOL changed hands within that price band, meaning holders who bought there are now sitting near breakeven. When price returns to those levels, many of them tend to sell to recover their positions, creating resistance that can slow or cap a rally. 

Martinez said that a confirmed three-day close above the $85 mark would clear that resistance cluster and open a path to the next targets at $100 and then $127.

This Week May Decide Everything For Solana 

In the downside scenario, the analyst asserted that if Solana loses the $70 level, the SuperTrend trailing stop flips back to bearish — invalidating the entire bullish setup that just triggered. 

From there, Martinez identified the next meaningful support at $53, a level Solana has not traded at since 2023. That would represent a significant correction from current prices and would likely require a broader market catalyst to recover from quickly.

At $75, Solana sits in a narrow window — above the level that keeps the bullish thesis alive, below the supply zone that needs to be cleared for the rally to extend. The next few days of price action around the $76 to $85 range will determine which side of Martinez’s setup plays out.

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