Bitcoin Price Climbs To $65,000 — Kalshi Traders Still See It Ending the Year Below $50,000

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to its highest level in nearly a month on Tuesday, reaching $65,000 as cooling US inflation data gave crypto markets a much-needed boost. 

Ethereum (ETH) gained 5.5% and briefly touched $1,890, while Hyperliquid (HYPE), Solana (SOL), and XRP each added around 3.5% in the same 24-hour window. But despite the rally, prediction market traders on Kalshi remain firmly bearish on where Bitcoin ends the year.

The Tailwind And Potential Headwind 

The trigger was the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. According to Bloomberg data, prices fell 0.4% on a monthly basis — the largest single-month decline since April 2020 — pulling annual inflation down to 3.5% from 4.2% in May. 

Lower inflation reduces the pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise or maintain high interest rates, which is crucial for Bitcoin, considering that tighter monetary policy tends to pull capital away from riskier assets. 

When rate expectations ease, investors are more willing to hold assets like Bitcoin — making Tuesday’s inflation number a direct tailwind for the entire crypto market.

That tailwind hit a wall by late Tuesday, however. President Trump reimposed a naval blockade of all Iranian ports and carried out a fourth night of military strikes on Iran, renewing threats to target power plants and bridges next week unless Tehran resumes negotiations.

Escalating military conflict raises oil prices, stokes inflation fears, and pushes investors toward traditional safe havens like gold and the US dollar — the opposite of what drives Bitcoin higher. Notably, that tension between inflation relief and the Iran escalation is reflected in what Kalshi traders are currently pricing. 

Kalshi Traders Are Not Buying The Rally 

Kalshi’s year-end Bitcoin price market — with over $28 million in traded volume — assigns just a 13% probability to Bitcoin finishing 2026 in the $65,000 to $70,000 range where it trades today, and only 8% to the $60,000 to $65,000 band.

Kalshi’s “How low will Bitcoin get this year” market — with $4.7 million in volume — gives a 52% chance Bitcoin drops below $50,000 at some point before year-end, and a 38% chance it falls below $45,000. On the question of whether Bitcoin hits $50,000 before $100,000, traders are leaning yes — 54% to 46%. 

Taken together, the prediction market consensus is clear. Tuesday’s rally to $65,000 is not being treated as a turning point — perhaps the last bull trap before the final leg down.

Featured image generated with OpenArt.