What Happens to Bitcoin Next Week Depends on 4 Events — One Could Be Devastating
Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating between $63,900 and $64,500 on Saturday, unable to push through the $65,000 resistance level that has capped the recent recovery. The price action this weekend is calm. Next week may not be.
Four Macro Risks Converging in One Week
Market analyst Crypto Rover flagged four converging events on X that he believes could trigger volatility comparable to the tariff-driven crash earlier this year — a period when crypto markets dropped sharply alongside equities as global trade tensions escalated.
The first is tariffs. The US announced its latest round of permanent Section 301 tariffs Thursday, setting rates between 10% and 12.5% on 60 trading partners.
The announcement came near market close, limiting the immediate reaction. That reaction is still coming. Rover said other countries could “retaliate” early next week, and any escalation in trade tensions tends to hit risk assets — including Bitcoin.
The second is the Iran conflict. US military activity against Iran has returned to levels last seen in March 2026, when oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply, and crude prices climbed.
That episode sent the stock market down roughly 10% over several weeks, with Bitcoin absorbing additional pressure as investors rotated toward safety. Oil prices are rising again. The same dynamic could repeat.
The third is the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets Wednesday. Since the last meeting, both consumer and producer price inflation have softened — but oil’s resurgence is pushing energy costs back up, which creates a fresh inflation risk the Fed cannot dismiss.
Rover said that if Wednesday’s statement or the dot plot — the Fed’s projection of where interest rates are heading — signals any inclination toward tightening, the market reaction could be severe. Rate expectations are one of the single most sensitive levers for crypto prices, and any hawkish surprise tends to hit fast.
Bitcoin Has Two Targets Next Week
The fourth event is the most technical but potentially the most dangerous. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) meets next week while the yen sits at its weakest level in roughly 40 years and Japanese government bond yields are climbing on inflation concerns.
If the BOJ signals aggressive rate hikes or any form of market intervention, it could trigger a sharp yen appreciation. That matters for crypto because of the carry trade — a strategy where investors borrow in low-interest-rate currencies like the yen and deploy the proceeds into higher-yielding assets including Bitcoin.
When the yen strengthens suddenly, those positions unwind rapidly, and assets get sold across the board. In August 2024, a BOJ rate hike triggered exactly that sequence.
Bitcoin fell from approximately $62,000 to below $50,000 in a matter of days — a drop of more than 20% — as carry trade positions unwound violently across global markets. Rover’s warning is that a repeat — or something worse — is possible if the BOJ moves aggressively again.
Against that backdrop, analyst Ali Martinez laid out the price levels that matter most heading into the week. Bitcoin’s immediate support sits at $63,800. If that level holds, Martinez sees a recovery toward $67,000 as the next realistic target.
Keep an eye on Bitcoin $BTC at $63,800.
If this level holds as support, I’m watching for a rebound toward $67,000. But if it breaks, the next downside target sits around $60,000. pic.twitter.com/kAn0hDIEmc
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) July 25, 2026
If $63,800 gives way, the next meaningful support drops to $60,000 — a level that would represent a full retest of the range established during July’s lows.
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