Bitcoin Struggles at $63,000 — Five Events Next Week Could Decide Where It Goes From Here

Bitcoin (BTC) closed July at the lower end of its current range, finishing near $62,000 after failing to push through the $66,000 resistance that has capped multiple recovery attempts over the past two weeks. 

The price action has been frustrating for bulls — a brief push toward $65,600 last week gave way to a sharp pullback, and the token has settled back just above $63,300, into the same channel it has occupied for most of July. However, next week brings five events that could break that pattern in either direction.

Bitcoin Faces Five Potential Catalysts This Week 

Market analyst Crypto Rover laid out the calendar on X. Monday starts with the ISM Manufacturing PMI — a measure of activity in US factories — alongside the possibility of yen intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). 

Typically, a sudden yen strengthening would trigger carry trade unwinding — the rapid sell-off of risk assets including Bitcoin by traders who borrowed in yen to fund higher-yielding positions — the same mechanism that sent Bitcoin from $62,000 to below $50,000 in August 2024.

Tuesday brings JOLTS job openings data — a key indicator of labor market health — alongside SpaceX reporting its first-ever earnings as a public company. 

Wednesday adds ISM Services PMI and the BOJ’s June meeting minutes, which will reveal how hawkish the central bank’s internal discussions were — a signal for how aggressively it might move on rates going forward.

Thursday is the day Crypto Rover flagged as potentially the most disruptive. A SpaceX (SPCX) share unlock worth over $100 billion is scheduled to occur, releasing previously restricted shares into the market. 

SPCX has already fallen 42% from its high with only a 4% float — meaning a tiny fraction of shares are available for public trading. When the unlock happens, and a flood of new supply hits the market, the resulting volatility in equities could spill directly into crypto, which has consistently dragged Bitcoin lower throughout this bear cycle.

Friday closes the week with US unemployment data, Berkshire Hathaway earnings, and the last day the CLARITY Act can realistically pass before the Senate’s August recess.

A positive unemployment number keeps rate cut hopes alive, which is supportive for Bitcoin. A surprise to the upside on unemployment could revive inflation fears and push rate expectations higher — which is the opposite of what crypto markets want. 

On the CLARITY Act, passage before Friday would likely trigger a significant Bitcoin rally given how closely the bill’s fate has been tied to crypto market sentiment all month.

Institutions Are Not Done Selling Yet 

When it comes to Bitcoin’s price action, market analyst ArdiNSC laid out a concerning structural picture on social media as well — retail investors are accumulating BTC at rates approaching the highest levels of this bear market, with retail volume delta sitting at approximately positive $686.5 million. 

But that retail demand is being absorbed by larger sellers. Mid-sized cumulative volume delta sits at negative $8.8 billion while institutional-sized flows have fallen to negative $12 billion — meaning institutions and large traders have been consistent net sellers throughout the retail accumulation phase.

The result is a stalemate. Retail has absorbed significant supply from larger participants but has not been able to reverse the direction of the larger flows. ArdiNSC noted the risk — if Bitcoin keeps falling while this divergence persists, retail buyers become trapped. 

The analyst believes that their eventual exhaustion and capitulation could then create the exact conditions larger participants need to begin accumulating at lower prices. 

Historically, that transition — retail conviction weakening as institutional selling slows — has been one of the clearest signals that Bitcoin is forming a major bottom, ArdiNSC concluded.

Featured image generated with OpenArt.