CLARITY Act Odds Are at Their Lowest In a Year β One Analyst Sees 200% Upside If It Passes This Week
The CLARITY Act’s approval odds on prediction market Kalshi have fallen to their lowest point in a year β sitting at just 31% β but one analyst is not reading that as a death sentence for the bill.Β
Technical analyst and MN Fund founder MichaΓ«l van de Poppe posted on X (Previously Twitter) that a Senate vote could still come as early as next week, and that if it does, the upside for crypto markets could exceed 200%.
Two Reasons The CLARITY Act Could Pass This WeekΒ
The CLARITY Act’s text was expected to circulate Thursday after President Trump met with senators at the White House β a session widely described as the one that would break the deadlock on the three key provisions blocking the bill. It did not.Β
Democratic senators largely stayed away, and those who engaged made clear they would not support a version without stronger ethics language. As CryptoDepth reported, the meeting produced no text and no agreement. Despite that, Van de Poppe pointed to two reasons he sees approval as still within reach this week.Β
The first is political will. The analyst said that major institutional and government players want the US to avoid falling behind on crypto regulation, and that the pressure does not disappear with one missed deadline.Β
The second is what he described as the market already pricing in an approval on the horizon. He cited a revival in decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens, alongside Ethereum (ETH) outperforming Bitcoin (BTC).Β
The CLARITY Act’s fate, however, still depends on resolving disputes that have resisted resolution for months. Senator Elizabeth Warren added a new dimension to the ethics fight this week.Β
The senator sent a letter directly to President Trump calling on him to voluntarily release an updated financial disclosure covering all crypto-related income through July 15, 2026 β by July 23.Β
Warren Wants Trump’s Crypto FinancesΒ
Warren argued that his existing disclosure, filed in May, does not reflect changes to his crypto holdings in recent months and that Congress cannot effectively address conflicts of interest without a current picture of his finances. Warren wrote:
Your financial disclosure raises key questions about the appropriateness of Presidents, Vice Presidents, senior administration officials, members of Congress, and their families profiting off the crypto industry, just as the US Senate debates crypto market structure legislation that has the potential to increase the value of your crypto holdings.
The ethics dispute is one of three provisions still blocking the CLARITY Act. The stablecoin yield language and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) provision remain unresolved alongside it.Β
House Representative Bryan Steil expressed optimism Friday that the Senate could move next week. Van de Poppe shares that view. The prediction market at 31% odds tells a very different story.
August 7 is the last day the Senate meets before the summer recess. Whatever happens this week will likely determine whether the CLARITY Act passes in 2026 or waits for the next Congress.
Featured image generated with OpenArt.Β