XRP Cannot Turn Bullish Until It Clears These 3 Levels — Here’s The Full Breakdown

XRP extended its losses on Monday evening, dropping 4.7% over both the past 24 hours and the past seven days to trade at $1.06, according to CoinGecko data. 

The move pushed the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap closer to its near two-year low of $1.009 reached last month, as concerns about potential Federal Reserve rate hikes and the ongoing CLARITY Act stalemate continued to weigh on the broader crypto market.

Despite the pressure, market analyst Sam Daodu of 24/7 Wall St. laid out in a recent report exactly what a reversal would require — and the answer involves three specific price levels that XRP has not been able to hold above for months.

XRP Has Three Walls to Break Through 

The first is $1.14, where the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA)— a line that tracks the average price over the past 50 trading sessions — currently sits. XRP trading below a falling 50-day EMA signals that short-term momentum is pointed downward. 

Closing above it and holding would show the near-term slide had stopped. But Daodu was clear that clearing this level alone would not end the downtrend — it would only show the short-term pressure had eased. The bigger levels are still ahead.

The second is $1.22, where the 100-day EMA sits. This level covers roughly five months of trading, making it a read on the medium-term trend rather than just recent weeks. XRP has been below the 100-day EMA since early April. 

Daodu explained why clearing this level carries more weight than the 50-day — every trader who bought XRP over the past five months is currently sitting on a loss. Each time the price rises, more of them reach their entry point and sell to exit flat. 

A sustained move above $1.22 would clear that overhead supply entirely, because there would be no one left holding a losing position from that period. That kind of selling pressure disappears when the level is cleared and held.

The third and most significant level is $1.42, where the 200-day EMA sits. This line moves slowly — a single session barely shifts it — and only turns after a sustained period of price movement in one direction. 

A 34% Rally Would Not End The Bear Market

XRP has been below it since January, meaning it has spent seven consecutive months in bear market territory by that technical definition, the analyst said. Every recovery attempt in that period has failed to change it.

There is a nuance worth noting on this level. Daodu pointed out that XRP’s gap to the 200-day EMA has been narrowing all year — but for the wrong reason. 

Moving averages are calculated from the prices feeding into them, so months of declining prices drag the average lower over time. The 200-day is moving toward XRP because the token itself has been falling, which means $1.42 becomes technically easier to reach the longer the decline continues.

Clearing all three levels would require a roughly 34% climb from current prices. But Daodu’s analysis makes clear that the price move alone would not be enough. 

The three averages are currently stacked in the order that defines a downtrend — the 50-day below the 100-day, the 100-day below the 200-day. 

Reversing that stack requires holding above each level long enough to pull the shorter averages up through the longer ones. That takes months of sustained trading above these levels, not a single strong week. “Until XRP manages a daily close above $1.14 and holds it, the other two are not yet in play,” Daodu concluded.

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